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The southwest monsoon is expected to make its initial onset over Kerala between May 22 and May 26, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), roughly a week ahead of the long-term normal date of June 1.
While an early onset is generally viewed as positive for the country’s kharif sowing, the picture for Gujarat remains more nuanced due to the state’s specific rainfall patterns and crop calendar.
Current IMD Update
On May 22, the IMD issued a fresh bulletin warning of continued heat wave to severe heat wave conditions across northwest, central, and east India, and parts of peninsular India, for the next six to seven days.
Gujarat has been among the affected regions, with several districts recording temperatures above 44°C earlier this month.
The monsoon’s further progress up the western coast toward Gujarat follows a separate timeline and will be closely watched in the coming weeks.
Gujarat-Specific Seasonal Outlook
Private weather expert Athreya Shetty has released a seasonal forecast indicating slightly below-average rainfall for Gujarat during the 2026 southwest monsoon.
The outlook does not point to a severe drought, but it suggests the possibility of uneven distribution, with some areas experiencing prolonged dry spells and others receiving heavy bursts.
A modest delay in the monsoon’s arrival over the state is also possible.
Key Crops And Sowing Considerations
Cotton and groundnut, which each cover more than 20 lakh hectares in the state, are major kharif crops highly sensitive to the timing and adequacy of early rains.
Maize and pulses are also significant.
Agricultural experts note that any delay in monsoon onset could push back sowing schedules, while weaker or uneven July rains might affect early crop growth stages.
Context From The Previous Season
Gujarat farmers enter this season with recent challenges in mind.
In October 2025, unseasonal rains caused damage across more than 10 lakh hectares, prompting a state-wide survey.
Mango growers in regions like Valsad and Kutch reported particularly heavy losses, with some varieties seeing up to 80% impact.
State Government Preparations
The Gujarat government has initiated several support measures ahead of the kharif season:
- A dedicated helpline (079-23256080) for farmers to report issues related to fertilizer availability and distribution.
- Promotion of natural farming practices through Bio-Resource Centers and Farmer-Producer Companies, including training on Jeevamrut and Ghan Jeevamrut.
- Ongoing procurement of chana and mustard at minimum support prices under the Center’s Price Support Scheme.
District-level advisories from the agriculture department are expected soon.
Broader Seasonal Factors
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a favorable phase, and El Niño conditions are projected to remain neutral, both of which are generally supportive of monsoon activity.
However, Gujarat’s location means the monsoon typically arrives later and has a shorter active season than in southern and eastern regions.
Even minor shifts in timing can influence sowing windows in a state where nearly half the farmland remains rainfed.
Advice For Farmers
The IMD’s Kerala onset is the first major indicator.
The monsoon’s advance through Karnataka and Maharashtra usually takes three to four weeks before reaching Gujarat.
Farmers are advised to monitor local rainfall patterns and await consistent showers before sowing, as premature planting based on pre-monsoon thundershowers has led to losses in previous years.
The Gujarat agriculture department will continue to issue region-specific guidance as the season progresses.
For now, the outlook calls for careful planning rather than alarm.
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