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The ongoing US-Israeli military operation against Iran, now in its second week, stems primarily from long-standing security concerns over Tehran’s nuclear programme and regional proxy activities.

Launched on February 28 with strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the conflict has rapidly escalated, targeting military, nuclear, and energy infrastructure while triggering Iranian retaliation across the Middle East.

Primary Causes

US and Israeli officials have described the strikes as pre-emptive, aimed at preventing Iran from achieving nuclear “breakout” capacity at key facilities such as Natanz and Fordow.

Intelligence assessments indicated Iran was close to weapons-grade uranium enrichment.

Additional factors include degrading Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and disrupting its support for militant groups, collectively known as the “Axis of Resistance”, operating in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and Iraq.

The United States maintains over 750 military bases worldwide and has long viewed Iran’s activities as a threat to regional stability and global energy security.

While defence contractors have seen increased demand for interceptors and related systems, the core drivers remain strategic and security-related rather than purely economic.

Escalation And Infrastructure Attacks

Strikes have hit major oil depots near Tehran, causing widespread fires and disrupting exports.

In retaliation, Iran has launched drones and missiles against Israel, US positions, and Gulf targets, including a social security building in Kuwait and a desalination plant in Bahrain.

Reports confirm a US-Israeli strike also damaged an Iranian desalination facility on Qeshm Island.

The cost asymmetry is stark: Iranian drones cost $20,000–$50,000 each, while US Patriot and THAAD interceptors cost $4 million-$13 million each, raising questions about the sustainability of prolonged defensive operations.

Impact On India

India, which imports significant energy from the Gulf and hosts over nine million citizens working in the region, faces direct economic consequences.

Potential spikes in oil prices and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could fuel domestic inflation and raise fuel costs.

Remittance flows from the Gulf, a vital part of India’s economy, are also at risk if the conflict widens.

New Delhi has maintained strategic neutrality, guided solely by national interests.

Both the US and Iran have had complex relations with India in the past, reinforcing the principle that India must prioritise energy security, defence self-reliance, and the safety of its diaspora without aligning with any external power.

The situation remains fluid, with US officials indicating intensified operations in the coming days.

Diplomatic channels have shown limited progress in de-escalation so far.